GDP News: GDP data, Q4 earnings among the 6 factors that will guide the market this week

NEW DELHI: Following the impact of the government’s fiscal measures, which included tariff changes for many commodities, the domestic market started last week on a negative note. Towards the end of the week, the market was able to recoup its losses following favorable US retail earnings and reduced FII sales.

Analysts said that while these government and RBI measures will help control inflation in the long run, they will have a cascading effect on the market and the economy in the short to medium term.

This week, some of the songs from last week will continue to play on the market. Apart from that, the market will also start to position itself for the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy meeting, where Street expects another round of rate hikes. Additionally, auto sales data and PMI data will also be on investors’ radar. The week will also see a couple of new listings.



Below are the key factors that will affect the market this week:

RBI Policy Meeting

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Although the meeting is scheduled for the second week of June, the market will begin to position itself for any surprises. A rate hike is certain, although the amount is what will be important to consider.

“The market expects another 50 bps hike from the US Fed and 35 bps from the RBI. If the tone of future monetary policy is dovish than anticipated, it will have a positive effect in the short and medium term, while a more aggressive stance will reduce the lifespan of the trend,” said Vinod Nair, head of research at .

Fourth Quarter Earnings

As this is the last week to report earnings for India Inc., more than 1,300 companies are scheduled to report their quarterly numbers. Most of them are from broader markets. This will certainly induce volatility in the small and mid-cap space in the coming days.

car sales data

The market will also be keeping an eye on car sales data to be released in early June. This will keep the auto lock active. Analysts will also try to extrapolate demand conditions and possible prospects for the segment from data released by automakers.

macro data

This week a lot of macro data will be released, including the GDP growth rate for the March quarter. The market will react to the numbers as the third wave of the pandemic had some impact during the quarter. Any revisions in future estimates will also be under the radar.

The market will also be keeping an eye on Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data to be released by S&P later in the week. It will give an idea of ​​the demand at the factory level.

Globally, the US is to release jobless claims data that will be watched. In addition, it will also be interesting to follow a couple of speeches from Fed officials.

IPO listing

There are three issues that will be listed on the exchanges during the week. The former is luxury watch retailer Ethos and the latter is eMudhra and the latter specialty chemical manufacturer Aether Industries. Gray market premiums for the first two stocks suggest they are likely to be flat at negative trading. The third one has a bit of a bonus, but it will be interesting to see if it can hold up.

technical view

Last week, the Nifty50 index closed marginally higher. The index continues to remain in oversold areas in the short term, indicating that a slight reversal from here is possible. Major developed and emerging market indices also indicate short-term bottom formations. Additionally, a positive reversal is seen in Bank Nifty, which has been outperforming the benchmark since it recovered from growing channel support.

“Based on these indicators, the Nifty downside appears to be restricted below 15,700 in the near term. Therefore, traders should maintain a bullish bias with a hard stop loss below the 15,700 levels. A convincing break above 16,400 may result in a retest of 16,800-16,900 levels to the upside,” said Yesha Shah, director of equity research at Samco Securities.

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