Tuesday’s flip looks wobbly as stock futures slide ahead of big Microsoft MSFT earnings
and GOOGL Alphabet,
after the market close.
Those results could provide a new catalyst for market direction after Monday’s mega reversal that some are wary of. The investment director of RTM Capital Advisors, also distrusts these days, mark ritchie iiwho sees a lot of problems under the hood.
“When the market is dealing with too many things at once, it’s usually a headwind, meaning the more managers have to discount too many issues, the more they have to reduce risk,” Ritchie said in an interview Monday with Real. View. .
In our call of the day, warns of a “secular bear market” environment, where prices may underperform earnings for years, with sound advice to investors. Among his concerns, he noted that only 20% of Nasdaq stocks are currently above their 200-day moving averages.
“I’m not saying we’re going to go down 10% in three days… but every time that happens, it happens in an environment where we’re sitting where there’s been distribution dominating the tape, we’re running down technical support areas and there’s very little leadership,” he said.
Especially for retail investors, another big theme is worth looking at. “The market has been reinforcing certain risk management strategies that I think are being challenged and have been challenged over the last 18 months and I don’t think that’s over.” Those include the popular strategy of buying on the dip after market sell-offs.
“Over the last decade, everyone has slowly embraced this idea that maybe it’s the Fed that’s going to bail me out, or TINA [There Is No Alternative],” he said. Last year’s kill list? The tech buyers, the short-term and long-term stock traders who decided they didn’t need to use stops with GameStop, etc., or the 60/40 managers who decided that, instead of reducing risk, they bought more bonds, he said.
Bonds and stocks could continue to fall in tandem, he warned.
“How many people have been conditioned in the broadest sense to say that the Fed has my back… the way I see it, the Fed says heads, we’re going to raise rates, tails, we’re going to raise rates even more. In either scenario, we’re going to pull liquidity… Now, broadly speaking, it’s not the most bullish fundamental driver either.”
On the safety side, he has a small position in gold but wants the technicals to improve but sees a “bullish” setup for oil as nothing has changed in the supply and demand situation.
That is especially going into a strong seasonal period. “I think if we do make new highs, this breakout has brought back some of the shorts, and there are now enough people on the other side of the trade that I think a breakout to the upside is potentially even more powerful in the short term.” But a crude weekly close below 95 or 90 would mean “the bears are in control.”
He has been saying for months that investors needed to raise cash, and that remains the case, even if the indices perk up. Because there is no point in trying to pick the winners right now, as the leaders in the next cycle may be different.
That cash gives investors the flexibility to adapt to the market. “So you have a recovery attempt, you put a little bit of capital to work, and then you build on success or failure,” he said. So “dip some toes” and then go “waist deep” if that works. That is the strategy he applied after the COVID-19 lows of 2020.
Last thing: volume matters. The rally attempts are based on the market closing on higher and above average volume several days after the low, which means you are getting a buy back…every significant rally in stock market history has had valid accumulation days or during the days after the subsequent low”.
Read: Market “doesn’t see a bottom yet,” says Morgan Stanley’s Wilson after “ominous” signal late last week
stocks are falling due to mixed results, UPS UPS
is recovering profit and income, 3M MMM
is also gaining thanks to upbeat earnings, while JetBlue JBLU
is down as it revealed plans to reduce capacity. Apart from Alphabet and Microsoft, GM GM,
and Texas Instruments TXN
Will report after closing.
Founder Jack Dorsey has given the go-ahead to Elon Musk’s pending $44 billion acquisition of the micro-messaging service, while other reactions appear to split party lines. Amazon AMZN
founder Jeff Bezos also spoke:
Opinion: It seems that nothing will stop Elon Musk from owning Twitter
The White House will expand the availability of the COVID-19 antiviral pill Paxlovid. In China, mass testing continues as Beijing braces for more lockdowns.
Fidelity has become the first major retirement plan provider to allow bitcoin 401(k) accounts. That cryptocurrency BTCUSD,
Meanwhile, it’s climbing.
Like the Russian forces attempt to encircle eastern UkraineForeign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned of the risks of World War III and nuclear confrontation.
The data shows that durable goods orders fell in March and home prices are rising. Consumer confidence and new home sales are yet to come.
are lower as the trading day begins, Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
continues to fall, and CL00 oil prices
have gotten taller. The DXY dollar
and gold GC00
both are up. Asian stocks had a mixed day, with further weakness in China XX:000300.
Watch the results from Microsoft and Google later to see where stocks are heading in the short term, says Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
“Remember, these are the two favorites of the US earnings season and they have incredible pedigrees of beating estimates, and they will really need to take some inspiration from their respective prospects to see real capital put to work in this ‘no-go’ market.” fight the Federal Reserve. he told customers.
“Microsoft is especially interesting, with a base build at $270; if this support breaks, it could cause another drop in the stock; Contrary to the bearish case, the bulls really want to see a move through the 50-day moving average. [moving average] ($293) and the gap has been filled since April 8 ($296) to suggest that the technology can really start to set the trend,” he said.
These were the most searched tickers on MarketWatch at 6 a.m. ET:
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